(DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA) — Pakistan’s Defence Minister has confirmed that his country’s nuclear deterrent “will be made available” to Saudi Arabia if required, in what amounts to the first explicit acknowledgment that Riyadh now falls under Islamabad’s nuclear umbrella.

Speaking in a late-night interview with Geo TV, Khawaja Asif made the remarks in response to a direct question on whether the “deterrence that Pakistan gets from nuclear weapons” would also be extended to the Kingdom under the new bilateral pact.

“Let me make one point clear about Pakistan’s nuclear capability,” Asif declared. “That capability was established long ago when we conducted our tests. Since then, we have forces trained for the battlefield.”

He went further, stating: “What we have, and the capabilities we possess, will be made available to Saudi Arabia according to this agreement.”

The statement underscores the unprecedented scope of the defence pact signed this week between the two long-standing partners, whose military ties span decades of joint training, deployments, and defence cooperation.

Strategic analysts interpret Islamabad’s assurance as a pointed signal not only to Tehran but especially to Israel, amid rising tensions in the Gulf following Tel Aviv’s cross-border strike last week that targeted Hamas leaders in Qatar, leaving six dead.

The Israeli operation has heightened regional anxiety among Gulf Arab states already unsettled by the devastation of Gaza and the widening scope of Israel’s campaign, which has placed Persian Gulf capitals on high alert.

In his interview, Asif also criticised Israel for failing to fully disclose details of its suspected nuclear arsenal to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), sharpening long-standing international concerns about Israel’s opacity on its nuclear doctrine.

He emphasised that neither Pakistan nor Saudi Arabia had designated any specific adversary under the pact. “We have not named any country whose attack would automatically trigger a retaliatory response,” he said. “Neither has Saudi Arabia named any country, nor have we.”

Describing the arrangement as a mutual shield, he concluded: “This is an umbrella arrangement offered to one another by both sides. If there is aggression against either party — from any side — it will be jointly defended, and the aggression will be met with a response.”

Pakistan-Saudi Defence Pact

Saudi Arabia and nuclear-armed Pakistan signed a landmark mutual defence pact on Wednesday, cementing one of the Islamic world’s most enduring military partnerships at a time of unprecedented instability in the Middle East.

The agreement comes as Gulf Arab monarchies increasingly question the reliability of the United States as their traditional security guarantor, particularly after Washington’s muted response to Israel’s strike on Doha last week.

“This agreement, which reflects the shared commitment of both nations to enhance their security and to achieving security and peace in the region and the world, aims to develop aspects of defense cooperation between the two countries and strengthen joint deterrence against any aggression. The agreement states that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both,” a joint statement published on Wednesday said, according to the Saudi Press Agency.

Television broadcasts showed Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman embracing warmly after signing the accord, a symbolic moment attended by Pakistan’s all-powerful Chief of Army Staff, Field Marshal Asim Munir.

Israel’s recent attempt to assassinate Hamas political leaders with airstrikes in Doha during ceasefire negotiations has outraged Arab capitals and injected new urgency into Riyadh’s security calculus.

For Saudi Arabia, the pact institutionalises what has long been an implicit commitment by Pakistan to defend the Kingdom, particularly its two holy cities of Makkah and Madinah, in times of existential threat.

For Pakistan, the deal elevates its strategic standing and provides assurances of Saudi financial and diplomatic backing at a time when Islamabad faces mounting economic and security pressures at home.

A senior Saudi official told Reuters: “This agreement is a culmination of years of discussions. This is not a response to specific countries or specific events but an institutionalisation of longstanding and deep cooperation between our two countries.”

Since the 1960s, Pakistan has trained more than 8,200 Saudi officers, deployed thousands of troops to the Kingdom, and pledged repeatedly to defend Riyadh’s sovereignty, making this pact less a surprise than a formalisation of reality.

The central strategic question now being asked across Western and Middle Eastern capitals is whether Pakistan would be willing to extend its nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia.

Pakistan today maintains an estimated 170 nuclear warheads, a robust missile arsenal ranging from the Shaheen-II and Shaheen-III to tactical Nasr systems, and is rapidly modernising its triad with submarine-launched cruise missiles.

Islamabad’s nuclear doctrine remains centred on “minimum credible deterrence” against India, with no declared “No First Use” policy, leaving open the option of pre-emptive nuclear strikes under existential conditions.

READ: Saudi-Pakistan Defence Pact Shakes Middle East Balance of Power – Nuclear Umbrella in Play?

However, extending such a deterrent to Riyadh would represent a radical strategic departure, risking confrontation with Washington, European powers, and even Beijing, which views nuclear proliferation in the Gulf as a destabilising factor.

Although speculation persists that Saudi Arabia covertly financed Pakistan’s nuclear program in the 1970s and 1980s, no binding mechanism exists that obligates Islamabad to unleash nuclear retaliation on Riyadh’s behalf.

Most analysts assess that Pakistan’s likely response to an attack on Saudi Arabia would focus on rapid deployment of conventional forces, intelligence-sharing, and missile defence assets, rather than nuclear escalation.

The risks of nuclear use in defence of Saudi territory are immense, potentially igniting a catastrophic regional war involving Iran, Israel, and the United States, destabilising both the Middle East and South Asia simultaneously.

Islamabad must also consider its own vulnerabilities, where diverting nuclear assets from its Indian front could dangerously erode its deterrence balance on the subcontinent.

The most plausible “nuclear role” for Pakistan would be limited to providing Riyadh with political assurance, technical expertise, or covert deterrent support, short of direct nuclear deployment or launch.

Pakistan’s Conventional Firepower

Beyond nuclear speculation, Pakistan’s conventional forces continue to modernise at speed with heavy reliance on Chinese and Turkish platforms.

The Pakistan Army fields nearly half a million troops and has strengthened its armoured corps with Chinese VT-4 “Haider” main battle tanks, supported by the indigenous Al-Khalid series and SH-15 howitzers.

Its newly established Army Rocket Force Command, announced in 2025, centralises precision-strike assets including the Fatah-1 guided rocket system and A-100 MLRS, enhancing battlefield reach and deterrence.

The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) is spearheaded by the induction of J-10C “Vigorous Dragon” fighters equipped with AESA radars and PL-15 beyond-visual-range missiles, directly countering India’s Rafales.

Parallel to this, JF-17 Block III fighters are entering mass service, offering cost-effective multirole capabilities with modern avionics, electronic warfare suites, and BVR missile integration.

Legacy F-16s remain upgraded for strike missions, while UAVs increasingly provide ISR and strike capabilities to complement manned platforms.

At sea, Pakistan’s Navy is undergoing a generational shift with Chinese-built Type 054A/P frigates, Turkish Babur-class corvettes, and future Hangor-class submarines that will cement its undersea deterrence posture.

The Navy is also enhancing its coastal defence with Azmat-class fast attack craft armed with advanced anti-ship cruise missiles, providing layered protection across Pakistan’s littoral waters.

In addition, the integration of long-range surveillance aircraft and maritime patrol drones is boosting situational awareness in the Arabian Sea, a theatre increasingly contested by Indian and U.S. naval forces.

Collectively, these modernisation efforts highlight Islamabad’s strategy of offsetting India’s numerical advantage through high-technology systems, rapid deployment capabilities, and tighter interoperability between land, air, and naval forces.

Saudi Arabia’s Military Arsenal and Strategic Posture

Saudi Arabia spends between USD70–80 billion annually on defence, making it one of the largest defence budgets in the world and the most formidable military power in the Gulf.

The Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) fields advanced F-15SA fighters, Eurofighter Typhoons, and Airbus A330 MRTT tankers, supported by AIM-120C-8 AMRAAMs and precision-guided munitions for long-range strike.

The Saudi Army deploys M1A2 Abrams tanks, modern armoured vehicles, and self-propelled artillery, while the Saudi National Guard provides internal security and rapid deployment capability.

Its naval expansion under “Saudi Naval Expansion Program II” is producing a modern fleet of frigates, corvettes, and mine-warfare vessels across both the Red Sea and Gulf theatres.

Missile defence forms the cornerstone of Riyadh’s survival strategy, with THAAD, Patriot PAC-3, and advanced radars designed to counter Iran’s drones and ballistic missile arsenal.

The Royal Saudi Strategic Missile Force also maintains long-range Chinese DF-3 ballistic missiles, with reports suggesting interest in acquiring more modern precision-strike assets.

Through Vision 2030, Riyadh is investing heavily in localisation of defence production via Saudi Arabian Military Industries (SAMI), seeking long-term autonomy from Western arms dependence.

In addition, Saudi Arabia has expanded its investment in unmanned aerial systems and electronic warfare platforms, recognising the growing asymmetric threat posed by Iranian-backed groups such as the Houthis.

The Kingdom has also accelerated its cyber warfare capabilities, developing both defensive and offensive tools to protect critical infrastructure from state and non-state adversaries.

These combined investments are transforming Saudi Arabia into not only a regional heavyweight but also a future defence-industrial hub, capable of projecting power across the Gulf and Red Sea while reducing reliance on external suppliers.

This defence pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is far more than a ceremonial gesture—it represents a recalibration of the Middle East’s fragile balance of power at a moment when Gulf states are openly questioning the credibility of Washington’s security umbrella.

Security Guarantee

For Riyadh, the agreement institutionalises a security guarantee from the world’s only Muslim-majority nuclear-armed state, transforming decades of informal military assistance into a binding pact that adversaries cannot easily ignore.

For Islamabad, it provides geopolitical leverage well beyond South Asia, projecting Pakistan’s influence into the Gulf region while securing vital Saudi political and financial backing at a time of economic crisis at home.

The pact directly signals to Israel that Riyadh now possesses a formalised military backstop from Islamabad, complicating Tel Aviv’s calculations in any future strike planning against Gulf states.

READ: Pakistan’s Pledge to Defend Makkah and Madinah Resurfaces Amid Israel’s Strike on Doha

It also sends a warning to Tehran that Saudi Arabia’s deterrence posture is no longer solely dependent on American systems such as THAAD and Patriot PAC-3 batteries, but now underpinned by the credibility of Pakistan’s massive conventional and nuclear arsenal.

Turkey too will be watching closely, as Ankara’s ambitions to become the pre-eminent security guarantor in the Islamic world may now be rivalled by a Riyadh-Islamabad axis capable of projecting combined military power across the Gulf and Red Sea corridors.

The unresolved nuclear question remains the most destabilising element of the pact, as ambiguity over whether Pakistan might extend its nuclear deterrent to Saudi Arabia could invite miscalculation from adversaries or trigger an accelerated regional arms race.

If misinterpreted, adversaries such as Iran or Israel could assume that Saudi Arabia now enjoys a de facto nuclear umbrella, thereby escalating their own strategic postures in anticipation of a worst-case scenario.

This uncertainty could in turn prompt the United States and European powers to reassess their non-proliferation strategies in the Gulf, particularly given Riyadh’s longstanding interest in acquiring a nuclear option of its own.

For China, the pact creates both opportunity and risk: Beijing benefits from a stronger Pakistan-Saudi partnership that could support its Belt and Road ambitions, yet it fears any overt nuclear proliferation that might destabilise its energy lifelines in the Gulf.

At the operational level, the agreement may accelerate joint exercises, integrated command structures, and interoperability between Saudi and Pakistani forces, laying the foundation for a more coordinated Gulf-South Asian security architecture.

This deepening alignment also positions Riyadh and Islamabad as central nodes in a broader multipolar order where U.S. dominance in the Gulf is contested by China, Russia, and regional powers seeking greater autonomy.

Ultimately, the pact strengthens deterrence by signalling that aggression against either state risks triggering a collective military response, but it also raises the stakes of misinterpretation and miscalculation in one of the most volatile regions in the world. — DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA