Pakistan-India Dogfight Triggers Global Audit of Air Combat Tactics, Missiles, and Strategy

“Air warfare communities in China, the U.S., and Europe will be extremely interested to get ground truth on what tactics, techniques, and systems worked—and what failed—in what is effectively a China-vs-West dogfight by proxy.” - Douglas Barrie, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)

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By admin On May 26, 2025

(DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA) – In a clash that may shape future doctrines of air combat, a high-intensity aerial engagement between Pakistani and Indian fighter jets has thrust the Chinese-built J-10C Vigorous Dragon into the global spotlight, with early indications suggesting it may have bested the French-built Rafale in long-range missile combat.

According to multiple sources, including two U.S. officials speaking to Reuters, at least two Indian Air Force (IAF) aircraft were reportedly shot down by Pakistan Air Force (PAF) J-10C fighters during the opening phases of the latest India-Pakistan aerial confrontation, marking a significant operational milestone for China’s premier 4.5-generation multirole platform.

The J-10C, developed by Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group (CAIG), comes equipped with an AESA radar, state-of-the-art electronic warfare systems, and compatibility with China’s most lethal air-to-air weapon: the PL-15 beyond-visual-range (BVR) missile—believed by many analysts to be a direct challenge to the American AIM-120D and Europe’s MBDA Meteor.

Pakistan first announced the acquisition of the J-10C in December 2021, timing its initial delivery to coincide with the nation’s Republic Day celebrations on March 23, 2022.

The first six J-10Cs were formally inducted into No. 15 “Cobras” Squadron at Minhas Airbase, Kamra, on March 11, 2022, and the fleet has since expanded, with reports indicating Pakistan is in advanced talks to acquire up to 60 airframes.

This acquisition represents more than just fleet modernisation—it marks a deliberate shift by Pakistan to gain long-range air superiority in a region increasingly saturated with advanced fighters and missile systems.

In what is being described by regional analysts as one of the largest and most sophisticated air battles in modern history, over 125 combat aircraft from both sides reportedly took to the skies in simultaneous sorties during the initial wave of conflict, primarily engaging in BVR missile duels across a standoff distance exceeding 160 km.

According to Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, “The much-hyped Rafale jets failed miserably, and Indian pilots proved utterly incompetent,” while adding that “our forces could have taken down 10 or 12 aircraft. But there was a strict order – strike only those that fired.”

This claim was reinforced by statements from Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, who confirmed that the PAF had also downed an Indian Mirage 2000 in subsequent engagements.

In a particularly telling strike, a PAF J-10C reportedly neutralised an IAF Rafale at a range of 182 km using the PL-15, a missile armed with an AESA seeker and capable of speeds approaching Mach 4, all while remaining within Pakistan’s own airspace—a feat that stunned Western observers and defence planners alike.

American outlet CNN reported that the engagement saw aircraft from both sides engaging targets without crossing their borders, relying solely on long-range missile systems—a tactical evolution consistent with the next-generation BVR doctrine.

“This is arguably China’s most capable missile system being employed against what many regard as the West’s premier multirole fighter,” said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

Barrie added, “Air warfare communities in China, the U.S., and Europe will be extremely interested to get ground truth on what tactics, techniques, and systems worked—and what failed—in what is effectively a China-vs-West dogfight by proxy.”

The implications of this encounter ripple far beyond South Asia, with Western defence firms, strategic analysts, and policymakers all looking to extract lessons on the efficacy of China’s airpower ecosystem, particularly the PL-15, which has been closely watched by U.S. and NATO air forces for several years.

One U.S. defence executive remarked, “The PL-15 is a big problem. It is something the U.S. military pays a lot of attention to,” further underlining its disruptive potential.

There remains uncertainty as to whether India’s Rafale fighters carried the Meteor missile during the engagement, or whether they were reliant on the older MICA BVR missile.

The Meteor’s actual range is classified, but Western officials acknowledge that the air-breathing ramjet design of the Meteor may still be outmatched in raw reach by the PL-15’s rocket propulsion.

Byron Callan, managing partner at Capital Alpha Partners, warned that “audits will be conducted globally” to separate technical performance from pilot training, engagement rules, and fog-of-war dynamics.

In Beijing, the results of the J-10C’s operational use will likely serve as validation of China’s maturing aerospace industry, which in the past decade has transitioned from Soviet-era mimicry to full-spectrum development of indigenous aircraft, sensors, and missile systems.

The PL-15, developed by the China Airborne Missile Academy (CAMA) under AVIC, has been the focal point of U.S. concern since at least 2017, triggering the accelerated development of the AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile (JATM) under Lockheed Martin.

The export variant PL-15E is believed to possess a maximum range of approximately 145 kilometres, significantly surpassing the effective range of most export-grade BVR missiles on the market, such as the AIM-120C and Russia’s R-77-1.

By contrast, the PL-15 variant used by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is assessed to have a strike envelope of 300 kilometres, giving it the ability to neutralize adversary aircraft before they even reach the missile’s launch platform.

The PL-15 family features a dual-pulse solid rocket motor, enabling sustained propulsion during mid-course and terminal engagement, ensuring maneuverability and kill probability against agile, evasive targets.

Equipped with a radar seeker powered by Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) technology, the missile is designed to resist jamming and function effectively in dense electronic warfare environments—an increasingly critical requirement in modern air combat.

The PL-15 and PL-15E have already been integrated across a range of Chinese fighter platforms, including the J-20, J-16, and J-10C, enhancing their stand-off capability and extending their kill radius far beyond traditional visual range limitations.

In regional terms, the missile’s introduction represents a transformative development for China and its strategic partners, particularly Pakistan, which has emerged as the first confirmed foreign operator of the PL-15E through its JF-17 Block III and J-10C fleets.

In Europe, efforts are underway to give the MBDA Meteor a mid-life propulsion and guidance upgrade, but progress has been slow, and this latest engagement may well reframe its development timeline.

Conflicting reports persist as to whether Pakistan is operating the full-performance PL-15 variant used by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), or the downgraded export version PL-15E, unveiled in 2021.

Douglas Barrie assessed that “Pakistan most likely fields the export version,” but cautioned that “even the downgraded PL-15E appears to be far more capable than what most Western analysts initially estimated.”

An unnamed European defence official remarked that a recovered seeker from a failed missile suggested near-peer guidance technology and added, “At this point, we simply don’t know enough. But it’s clear we can’t underestimate the capability anymore.”

As India continues to review its own performance and prepares for potential future engagements in a two-front conflict scenario, the lessons from this J-10C versus Rafale confrontation will likely influence doctrine, procurement, and alliance-building from Washington to New Delhi.

For Pakistan, the success of the J-10C and PL-15 not only reinforces its deterrent posture but also represents a breakthrough in operationalising next-gen air combat technology in active conflict—something many air forces can only simulate.

For China, it’s an unambiguous showcase: a real-world performance of its fighter-missile pairing that is likely to accelerate global interest in the J-10C platform and its supporting weapons suite—reshaping the export landscape and challenging long-standing Western dominance in aerial warfare.

— DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA

Pakistan-India Dogfight Triggers Global Audit of Air Combat Tactics, Missiles, and Strategy

Pakistan first announced the acquisition of the J-10C in December 2021, timing its initial delivery to coincide with the nation’s Republic Day celebrations on March 23, 2022.

The first six J-10Cs were formally inducted into No. 15 “Cobras” Squadron at Minhas Airbase, Kamra, on March 11, 2022, and the fleet has since expanded, with reports indicating Pakistan is in advanced talks to acquire up to 60 airframes.

This acquisition represents more than just fleet modernisation—it marks a deliberate shift by Pakistan to gain long-range air superiority in a region increasingly saturated with advanced fighters and missile systems.

According to Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, “The much-hyped Rafale jets failed miserably, and Indian pilots proved utterly incompetent,” while adding that “our forces could have taken down 10 or 12 aircraft. But there was a strict order – strike only those that fired.”

This claim was reinforced by statements from Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, who confirmed that the PAF had also downed an Indian Mirage 2000 in subsequent engagements.

American outlet CNN reported that the engagement saw aircraft from both sides engaging targets without crossing their borders, relying solely on long-range missile systems—a tactical evolution consistent with the next-generation BVR doctrine.

“This is arguably China’s most capable missile system being employed against what many regard as the West’s premier multirole fighter,” said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

Barrie added, “Air warfare communities in China, the U.S., and Europe will be extremely interested to get ground truth on what tactics, techniques, and systems worked—and what failed—in what is effectively a China-vs-West dogfight by proxy.”

One U.S. defence executive remarked, “The PL-15 is a big problem. It is something the U.S. military pays a lot of attention to,” further underlining its disruptive potential.

There remains uncertainty as to whether India’s Rafale fighters carried the Meteor missile during the engagement, or whether they were reliant on the older MICA BVR missile.

The Meteor’s actual range is classified, but Western officials acknowledge that the air-breathing ramjet design of the Meteor may still be outmatched in raw reach by the PL-15’s rocket propulsion.

Byron Callan, managing partner at Capital Alpha Partners, warned that “audits will be conducted globally” to separate technical performance from pilot training, engagement rules, and fog-of-war dynamics.

In Beijing, the results of the J-10C’s operational use will likely serve as validation of China’s maturing aerospace industry, which in the past decade has transitioned from Soviet-era mimicry to full-spectrum development of indigenous aircraft, sensors, and missile systems.

The PL-15, developed by the China Airborne Missile Academy (CAMA) under AVIC, has been the focal point of U.S. concern since at least 2017, triggering the accelerated development of the AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile (JATM) under Lockheed Martin.

The export variant PL-15E is believed to possess a maximum range of approximately 145 kilometres, significantly surpassing the effective range of most export-grade BVR missiles on the market, such as the AIM-120C and Russia’s R-77-1.

By contrast, the PL-15 variant used by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is assessed to have a strike envelope of 300 kilometres, giving it the ability to neutralize adversary aircraft before they even reach the missile’s launch platform.

The PL-15 family features a dual-pulse solid rocket motor, enabling sustained propulsion during mid-course and terminal engagement, ensuring maneuverability and kill probability against agile, evasive targets.

Equipped with a radar seeker powered by Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) technology, the missile is designed to resist jamming and function effectively in dense electronic warfare environments—an increasingly critical requirement in modern air combat.

The PL-15 and PL-15E have already been integrated across a range of Chinese fighter platforms, including the J-20, J-16, and J-10C, enhancing their stand-off capability and extending their kill radius far beyond traditional visual range limitations.

In regional terms, the missile’s introduction represents a transformative development for China and its strategic partners, particularly Pakistan, which has emerged as the first confirmed foreign operator of the PL-15E through its JF-17 Block III and J-10C fleets.

In Europe, efforts are underway to give the MBDA Meteor a mid-life propulsion and guidance upgrade, but progress has been slow, and this latest engagement may well reframe its development timeline.

Conflicting reports persist as to whether Pakistan is operating the full-performance PL-15 variant used by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), or the downgraded export version PL-15E, unveiled in 2021.

Douglas Barrie assessed that “Pakistan most likely fields the export version,” but cautioned that “even the downgraded PL-15E appears to be far more capable than what most Western analysts initially estimated.”

An unnamed European defence official remarked that a recovered seeker from a failed missile suggested near-peer guidance technology and added, “At this point, we simply don’t know enough. But it’s clear we can’t underestimate the capability anymore.”

As India continues to review its own performance and prepares for potential future engagements in a two-front conflict scenario, the lessons from this J-10C versus Rafale confrontation will likely influence doctrine, procurement, and alliance-building from Washington to New Delhi.

For Pakistan, the success of the J-10C and PL-15 not only reinforces its deterrent posture but also represents a breakthrough in operationalising next-gen air combat technology in active conflict—something many air forces can only simulate.

For China, it’s an unambiguous showcase: a real-world performance of its fighter-missile pairing that is likely to accelerate global interest in the J-10C platform and its supporting weapons suite—reshaping the export landscape and challenging long-standing Western dominance in aerial warfare.

— DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA