Pakistan Navy Think Tank Warns: India Could Launch Devastating First Strikes on Strategic Naval Bases

(DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA) — Islamabad’s most influential maritime think tank has issued a chilling warning that India may unleash devastating pre-emptive naval strikes on multiple Pakistani bases in any future conflict, raising the stakes in an already volatile Indian Ocean Region.

The recent-assessment by the National Institute of Maritime Affairs (NIMA), which operates under the Pakistan Navy, underscores fears that India would attempt to cripple Pakistan’s maritime power projection at the outset of war through simultaneous precision strikes.

According to the study, India’s strategy would be anchored on coordinated attacks designed to paralyze Pakistan’s naval infrastructure and degrade its ability to sustain operations in the Arabian Sea.

The report singles out key strategic facilities that would likely be hit in the first wave of strikes, with PNS Jinnah at Ormara topping the list due to its role in housing submarines and surface assets critical to Pakistan’s western maritime defenses.

PNS Makran at Pasni was identified as another prime target, given its logistical significance and position astride vital sea lanes in the Arabian Sea.

The analysis also highlights PNS Qasim in Karachi, the heart of Pakistan’s naval operations, historically scarred by Indian missile attacks during the 1971 war, as an inevitable focal point of Indian targeting doctrine.

Other installations, including naval outposts in Jiwani and supporting missile batteries, were also flagged as vulnerable nodes that could be struck to disrupt surveillance and missile coverage.

NIMA’s findings attribute India’s potential strategy to its overwhelming advantages in carrier strike groups, long-range surveillance platforms, and precision-guided munitions capable of multi-pronged, overwhelming assaults.

The think tank warns of Pakistan’s “asymmetric disadvantage,” stressing that India’s navy—already boasting over 67 warships and two aircraft carriers—plans to double its fleet to 160 vessels within the next decade.

In contrast, Pakistan is attempting to balance the equation through diversification, building new bases along the Makran coast, but remains heavily outgunned in numbers, technology, and industrial base.

To mitigate these vulnerabilities, the report urges dispersal of naval assets across multiple hardened locations, fortified bunkers to withstand missile strikes, and integration of coastal defenses with land-based missile and air defense networks to establish a layered shield.

It further recommends intensifying naval diplomacy and accelerating procurement efforts, including the acquisition of eight submarines from China and four corvettes from Turkey, to ensure survivability and deterrence.

The assessment, although not officially released to the public, has surfaced in defence circles and across social media platforms, triggering debates about Pakistan’s preparedness against India’s maritime modernization.

Historical and Strategic Context

The analysis comes as Indo-Pak naval rivalry continues to harden, rooted in decades of competition at sea.

India has repeatedly demonstrated the use of blockade strategies, most notably during Operation Talwar in 1999 and Operation Parakram in 2001-2002, designed to squeeze Pakistan’s maritime trade lifelines.

After the 2019 Pulwama attack, New Delhi surged assets including the INS Vikramaditya aircraft carrier and the leased nuclear submarine Chakra, sending clear signals of intent to dominate Pakistan’s littoral zones.

Just weeks ago, both navies staged parallel exercises in the Arabian Sea from August 11–12, 2025, underscoring the heightened alert levels on both sides.

Islamabad has attempted to offset these disadvantages by pursuing a seaborne nuclear deterrent, showcased in 2017 with the test launch of the Babur-III submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM), designed to penetrate India’s layered missile defenses.

Pakistan’s tactical nuclear posture, including deployment of low-yield warheads for battlefield use, is designed to deter Indian naval incursions and complicate New Delhi’s war calculus.

Exercises such as AMAN-19, which bring together multinational partners, are framed by Pakistan as confidence-building measures to signal its commitment to maritime stability.

For New Delhi, however, naval expansion is justified not only by the Pakistan challenge but also by China’s deepening presence in the Indian Ocean, often linked to Beijing’s military and economic axis with Islamabad.

India’s 2015 Maritime Security Strategy emphasized dominance over sea lines of communication (SLOCs), including the fielding of nuclear-powered submarines like the INS Arihant, armed with K-15 Sagarika ballistic missiles.

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh reinforced this doctrine in May 2025, declaring that the Indian Navy would spearhead retaliation against any Pakistani aggression, underscoring India’s transition toward maritime-centric deterrence.

India’s alliances add further weight to its naval posture. The Quad grouping with the United States, Japan, and Australia, combined with access to forward facilities in Oman and Iran’s Chabahar Port, places Indian strike assets within rapid reach of Pakistan’s coastline.

Pakistan, meanwhile, is bolstering its counterweight through strategic partnerships with China and Turkey, aimed at expanding its submarine fleet and modern corvette force, increasing the threat from beneath the waves.

Expanding Indian Maritime Power Projection

A major factor fueling Islamabad’s anxiety is New Delhi’s rapid acceleration of naval modernization, marked by the induction of new platforms, expanded alliances, and growing integration with global partners.

India recently commissioned its first indigenously built aircraft carrier, INS Vikrant, which alongside INS Vikramaditya, provides New Delhi with dual-carrier strike capability for the first time in its history.

The addition of new Visakhapatnam-class guided-missile destroyers and Kalvari-class submarines has further bolstered the Indian Navy’s ability to project power deep into the Arabian Sea.

Coupled with the deployment of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles across multiple naval and air platforms, India is positioning itself to achieve overwhelming long-range precision strike capacity against Pakistan’s coastal assets.

New Delhi’s expanding BrahMos export diplomacy, including recent deliveries to the Philippines and active negotiations with Indonesia, not only reinforces India’s defense industry credibility but also signals its ability to wield the missile as a tool of strategic influence.

For Islamabad, the concern is not just the missiles themselves, but the interoperability India gains through defense partnerships with the United States, Japan, and Australia under the Quad framework, alongside growing ties with Southeast Asian states.

This network of partnerships provides New Delhi with real-time intelligence-sharing, joint maritime domain awareness, and access to forward operating bases that position Indian assets much closer to Pakistan’s western seaboard.

The Malabar 2025 naval exercise, involving U.S. carrier strike groups, Japanese destroyers, and Australian frigates, underscored the degree to which India is embedding its navy within a wider security architecture.

From Islamabad’s perspective, this multilateral integration transforms the naval balance from a bilateral India-Pakistan equation into a broader alignment that magnifies India’s conventional edge.

Analysts argue that this dynamic leaves Pakistan facing a dilemma — either pursue deeper military-technical integration with China and Turkey to offset India’s growing coalition power, or risk being permanently outmatched at sea.

China’s expanding role in Pakistan’s naval development, from the transfer of Type 054A/P frigates to the co-production of submarines, is increasingly framed by New Delhi as part of a “dual-front maritime challenge” that requires pre-emptive countermeasures.

The Indian Navy’s growing fleet of P-8I Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, supported by satellites and unmanned systems, has also significantly enhanced its ability to track Pakistani submarine movements across the Arabian Sea.

This ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) dominance is viewed in Islamabad as a potential enabler of first-strike scenarios, allowing India to target Pakistan’s naval infrastructure and sea-based nuclear deterrent before it can be fully mobilized.

The Pakistani strategic community sees this as an existential threat, warning that New Delhi’s confidence in its surveillance and strike superiority could tempt it into escalation during a future crisis.

In this context, NIMA’s warning is not just about hardware disparities but about the erosion of strategic stability in the Indian Ocean Region, where perception gaps and miscalculation risks are widening with every modernization milestone.

Escalating Risks for Regional Stability

NIMA’s stark warnings reflect Pakistan’s deep-seated anxieties as India accelerates military modernization and strengthens interoperability with allies through exercises like Malabar and MILAN.

Indian analysts have largely dismissed Islamabad’s alarmist scenarios as propaganda, pointing to India’s declared defensive posture, while unofficial social media accounts have ridiculed NIMA’s claims as “nuclear sabre-rattling.”

Still, the potential for miscalculation remains dangerously high, particularly as both nations now possess nuclear-capable sea-launched platforms that could make the Arabian Sea a nuclearized battlespace.

Pakistan’s Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal has publicly called for the Indian Ocean to serve as a “center of peace” rather than a theater of rivalry, but military realities point in the opposite direction.

India’s carrier battle groups, combined with its expanding underwater arm of SSBNs and SSNs, offer strike reach far beyond Pakistan’s coastal waters, cementing New Delhi’s maritime superiority.

Pakistan’s emphasis on second-strike survivability through its SLCMs reflects a strategy of deterrence through assured retaliation, raising the nuclear threshold at sea.

International observers warn that the Indo-Pak maritime rivalry could evolve into the most volatile flashpoint in the IOR, surpassing traditional land-based flashpoints like Kashmir.

With water disputes over the Indus Waters Treaty, ongoing border skirmishes, and competing alliances, the danger of a maritime clash escalating into nuclear exchange cannot be dismissed.

Calls for dialogue from international actors remain persistent, but prospects for de-escalation appear dim amid military buildups and hardened national security doctrines.

The future of the Indian Ocean may well be determined not by trade and connectivity, but by the shadow of aircraft carriers, missile salvos, and nuclear-armed submarines prowling its depths. 

— DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA