Trump Poised to Revive F-35 Deal with Turkey — But Only If Ankara “Silences” Its Russian S-400 Missiles
According to American-media quoting diplomatic sources familiar with the matter, Trump has signalled his willingness to push for Turkey’s re-entry into the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter programme, contingent upon Ankara’s readiness to "silenced" its contentious Russian-made S-400 Triumf air defence system—a system that has strained Turkey's transatlantic ties and triggered U.S. sanctions under the CAATSA regime.
(DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA) – In what could mark a pivotal shift in Washington’s posture towards Ankara, U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly prepared to revisit the previously suspended sale of F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter jets to Turkey, following a recent high-level conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
According to American media quoting diplomatic sources familiar with the matter, Trump has signalled his willingness to push for Turkey’s re-entry into the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter programme, contingent upon Ankara’s readiness to “silenced” its contentious Russian-made S-400 Triumf air defence system—a system that has strained Turkey’s transatlantic ties and triggered U.S. sanctions under the CAATSA regime.
The two leaders held a telephone conversation on Sunday, reigniting speculation of a potential thaw in bilateral defence ties.
Turkish officials are reportedly laying the groundwork for an official visit by President Erdogan to Washington in the near future, a meeting that could become a critical juncture in redefining U.S.-Turkey strategic alignment within NATO.
The Turkish Embassy in Washington cited a readout from Erdogan’s office affirming the President’s view that, “to strengthen bilateral cooperation in the defence industry, it is imperative to lift CAATSA sanctions, finalise the F-16 procurement process, and reintegrate Turkey into the F-35 programme.”
First enacted in 2017, CAATSA—the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act—serves as a legislative tool to impose punitive measures on states engaging in significant transactions with U.S. adversaries such as Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
For Turkey, the trigger point was its acquisition of the S-400, an advanced surface-to-air missile system developed by Almaz-Antey and considered one of the most formidable anti-air platforms in Russia’s arsenal.
The S-400’s radar systems, capable of tracking stealth aircraft at extended ranges, raised immediate concerns in Washington that sensitive F-35 mission data, radar cross-section profiles, and electronic signatures could be compromised and siphoned to Moscow through passive intelligence collection.
In response, the United States expelled Turkey from the F-35 consortium—a multinational programme valued at over US$1.7 trillion—and imposed targeted sanctions on Turkish defence entities and officials.
Notably, six F-35A aircraft built for Turkey remain in storage in the U.S., undelivered due to the programme freeze, despite Ankara’s payment of US$1.4 billion in advance.
“The F-35 cannot coexist with a Russian intelligence collection platform that will be used to learn about its advanced capabilities,” the White House stated in 2019, framing the S-400 issue as not merely a procurement choice, but a test of alliance fidelity.
Turkey’s US$2.5 billion deal with Russia in 2017 for the S-400 was seen in Moscow as a diplomatic coup, undermining NATO unity and signalling a diversification in Turkish strategic defence partnerships.
Ankara had turned to the Russian offer following the collapse of protracted negotiations with Washington for the Raytheon-manufactured Patriot missile system, a situation worsened by disputes over technology transfer and local co-production rights.
Moscow sweetened the deal with technology-sharing clauses and the possibility of local assembly in Turkey—a move calculated to appeal to Ankara’s ambitions for defence industrial self-sufficiency.
Despite taking delivery of the first S-400 regiment in 2019 and conducting a high-profile live-fire test in Sinop the following year, Turkish officials have since kept the system in storage at a classified location, reportedly under pressure from NATO allies.
The system remains excluded from Turkey’s newly unveiled “Steel Dome” layered air defence network, a domestically integrated system aimed at protecting Turkish airspace from multi-domain threats.
In September last year, credible reports surfaced that Washington had tabled a compromise proposal: Turkey would retain the S-400 on its soil but cede operational control to the United States.
The plan involved relocating the missile batteries to the Incirlik Air Base in southern Turkey—home to a significant U.S. military presence—where American personnel could manage the system and ensure it posed no risk to F-35 interoperability.
“The U.S. proposal aims to facilitate Turkey’s return to the F-35 programme and reopen the path for Ankara to resume its planned acquisition of 100 stealth fighters, as previously agreed,” diplomatic sources confirmed.
The revival of Turkey’s participation in the F-35 programme, should it materialise, would have far-reaching implications—not only for Ankara’s airpower modernisation plans but also for NATO’s cohesion, Russia’s influence in Eurasia, and the integrity of Western defence supply chains.
For now, the ball appears to be in Turkey’s court.
Whether Ankara is prepared to walk back from its S-400 gamble in exchange for a return to fifth-generation fighter capabilities—and a strategic rapprochement with Washington—remains to be seen.
— DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA
