(DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA) — In a stunning development, leaked documents from Russia’s Concern Radio-Electronic Technologies (KRET) — a major subsidiary of the state-owned Rostec Corporation — have exposed Iran’s plans to purchase a massive fleet of 48 Su-35 multirole fighter jets.

The leaked files, which surfaced across social media platforms in early October 2025, provide detailed export documentation, including electronic warfare (EW) equipment manifests and radio-frequency (RF) systems designated for Iranian-bound aircraft.

The revelations confirm one of the most persistent rumours in defence circles: that Tehran and Moscow have quietly concluded a major airpower procurement deal that could transform Iran’s long-decaying air force into one of the region’s most formidable.

According to the documents, Iran’s Su-35 acquisition will be integrated with advanced EW and avionics packages developed by KRET, underscoring the scale of the project and the growing depth of military-technical cooperation between the two sanctioned states.

The leak represents not merely an arms deal revelation — but a profound indicator of a shifting global order where Moscow and Tehran are consolidating a defence partnership aimed squarely at counterbalancing Western air dominance across Eurasia and the Middle East.

The origin of the leak appears to trace back to a sophisticated cyberattack attributed to Ukrainian hackers targeting Rostec and its subsidiaries.

The attackers reportedly gained access to KRET’s internal export databases, releasing several internal summary tables that detailed avionics, radar systems, and electronic warfare suite contracts destined for foreign clients.

These documents were rapidly disseminated across X (formerly Twitter), Telegram, and OSINT communities, sparking intense debate among defence analysts, journalists, and military intelligence observers.

While Russian authorities have not commented publicly, multiple independent experts have verified key identifiers — including supplier codes, procurement categories, and serial designations — that correspond closely with previously documented KRET export patterns.

In the leaked tables, Iran is believed to be represented by customer code “364”, which corresponds to an export package of 48 Su-35 units scheduled for delivery between 2026 and 2028.

The files further specify 24 Khibiny-M (L-265M10-02) electronic warfare pods, 5 “ZIP-G” spares kits, 5 SVR L-277M radar-warning receivers, and an advance payment rate between 15% and 20%.

Crucially, the KRET component value for this package alone is listed at €588 million, implying that the total aircraft deal value could exceed €5–6 billion (US$5.4–6.5 billion or RM25–30 billion) once full airframe and armament systems are accounted for.

Other entries in the documents show parallel exports under codes believed to represent Algeria (Code 012) — including Su-34s and Su-57s — and another smaller Su-35 order from Code 231, possibly Ethiopia or Egypt, reinforcing the credibility of the source material.

Across social media, users quickly dissected the tables, highlighting procurement quantities such as the 48 PKI heads-up display systems, corroborating the 48-aircraft figure tied to Iran’s contract.

The timing of the leak — amid escalating Russia-Iran cooperation and Western scrutiny — has intensified speculation that this was a deliberate attempt by hostile cyberactors to expose the growing defence nexus between Moscow and Tehran.

IRAN’S LONG QUEST FOR A MODERN AIR FORCE

For over four decades, Iran’s air force has struggled under crippling Western sanctions, relying on aging American F-4 Phantoms, F-5 Tigers, and F-14 Tomcats, along with Soviet-era MiG-29s and Su-24s.

Tehran’s limited access to spare parts, modern avionics, and weapons integration technology has severely restricted operational readiness, forcing reliance on reverse-engineering and cannibalization for maintenance.

Iran’s indigenous attempts, such as the HESA Saeqeh and Kowsar projects, have yielded limited success — producing upgraded F-5 derivatives rather than new-generation fighters.

Since 2018, Tehran has sought external suppliers to rejuvenate its airpower, with Russia and China being the only viable partners amid comprehensive Western arms embargoes.

Negotiations for Su-35s reportedly began in 2019, with prepayments and barter arrangements — involving drone technology transfers and oil trade — initiated between 2022 and 2023.

Initial reports suggested Iran would receive around 24 to 25 aircraft, possibly diverted from an earlier Egyptian order frozen due to U.S. pressure.

By 2024, Iranian officials offered mixed statements: while the Ministry of Defence denied imminent deliveries, insiders within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) confirmed “technical-level cooperation” with Russia.

The situation changed dramatically in January 2025, when a senior IRGC aerospace commander publicly stated that “Iran has concluded a contract for advanced Su-35 fighters with the Russian Federation.”

This admission coincided with multiple satellite imagery findings showing infrastructure expansion at Tactical Air Base No. 8 (TAB-8) at Isfahan, which analysts believe will serve as the first operational base for the incoming Su-35 fleet.

LOCAL ASSEMBLY AND PRODUCTION RUMOURS

The leaked KRET data suggests that Russia may go beyond simple export delivery — offering semi-knocked-down (SKD) assembly in Iran through a local aerospace partner, possibly under the Iran Aviation Industries Organization (IAIO).

Under such an arrangement, the Su-35 kits would be assembled domestically, allowing Iran to gain production experience and bypass logistical bottlenecks imposed by Western sanctions.

If confirmed, Iran could assemble 48–72 units over several years, creating its first near-indigenous fourth-plus-generation fighter production line since the 1970s.

Analysts believe assembly may have already begun discreetly in mid-2024, supported by a flow of Russian technical advisors and spare component shipments via the Caspian Sea route.

This strategy mirrors Russia’s approach to allies like India with its Su-30MKI program, combining local assembly with imported avionics and weapon systems.

In addition to this, sources within Iran’s defence industrial sector have hinted that the assembly may take place at the Shahid Babayi Air Base near Isfahan, where extensive hangar expansions and high-bay structures resembling aircraft assembly facilities were observed through recent commercial satellite imagery.

Unverified insider reports also indicate that Russian technicians from Sukhoi and KRET have been embedded within Iran’s Aerospace Industries Organization since early 2024, overseeing the calibration of jigs, fuselage alignment, and the installation of hydraulic and avionics integration test benches.

To sustain long-term operations, Iran is believed to be developing localized supply chains for auxiliary components such as wiring harnesses, cockpit display panels, and non-critical structural composites — a move that would gradually reduce dependency on Russian deliveries.

If successful, this collaboration could serve as a blueprint for future co-production of other advanced Russian platforms in Iran, such as the Yak-130 trainer jet and even the Checkmate (Su-75) light stealth fighter currently under design.

Defence analysts assess that by establishing a limited assembly capability for the Su-35, Tehran aims not only to modernize its air force but also to revive its dormant aerospace manufacturing ecosystem — a strategic leap toward eventual self-sufficiency in combat aircraft production within the next decade.

TECHNICAL CAPABILITIES: WHY THE SU-35 IS A GAME-CHANGER FOR IRAN

The Su-35S (Flanker-E) is one of Russia’s most capable fourth++ generation fighters, featuring thrust-vectoring Saturn AL-41F1S engines, advanced Irbis-E PESA radar, and a comprehensive electronic countermeasure suite.

It can detect aerial targets at ranges exceeding 350 km, track up to 30 targets simultaneously, and engage up to 8 targets at once.

Equipped with supermaneuverability, the Su-35 can out-turn most Western fighters in close combat while maintaining superior high-altitude performance and long-range endurance — exceeding 3,600 km with external fuel tanks.

For Iran, integrating 48 Su-35s could create two full operational squadrons, supplemented by training and reserve aircraft, dramatically boosting air superiority and long-range interdiction capabilities.

The Khibiny-M EW pods included in the leaked package enable active radar jamming, missile deception, and target spoofing, essential for survivability against advanced SAM systems and enemy fighters.

The fighter’s compatibility with R-77-1 medium-range, R-37M long-range air-to-air, and Kh-59MK2 precision strike missiles gives Iran the ability to conduct stand-off attacks deep inside adversary airspace.

When integrated with Russian S-400 Triumf air defense systems, which Iran is also reportedly receiving, the combined network would form an overlapping multi-layered air defense bubble across key Iranian installations and the Persian Gulf corridor.

Such a configuration would significantly challenge Israel’s F-35I “Adir” stealth squadrons and Saudi Arabia’s F-15SA fleet during potential conflicts.

GEO-STRATEGIC AND REGIONAL IMPACT

The leaked Su-35 deal marks one of Russia’s most extensive fighter exports since its Su-30MK program with India and China, and it underscores Moscow’s commitment to deepening military ties with nations outside the Western orbit.

For Iran, the Su-35 purchase represents the culmination of decades of strategic patience — a bold leap into high-performance aerial warfare that could redefine its deterrence posture against Israel and U.S. assets in the Gulf.

The implications extend far beyond hardware.

This deal signifies a new axis of military-technological cooperation between Moscow and Tehran, driven by shared isolation from Western economies and overlapping strategic interests in Syria, Ukraine, and the Persian Gulf.

Western analysts warn that operational Su-35s in Iranian service could complicate Israel’s preemptive strike doctrine, forcing Jerusalem to rethink its traditional freedom of action over Syrian and Iraqi airspace.

The aircraft’s extended radar reach and high-speed interception capabilities could threaten Israeli tanker and AEW&C assets critical for long-range missions.

Moreover, Gulf Arab states are likely to respond by accelerating procurement of additional Eurofighter Typhoon, Rafale F4, or F-15EX fighters to maintain regional parity.

This regional arms race dynamic could push Middle Eastern defence expenditure even higher — exceeding US$190 billion (RM900 billion) annually by 2026, according to SIPRI forecasts.

SANCTIONS, PRODUCTION BOTTLENECKS, AND INDUSTRIAL CHALLENGES

Despite its strategic allure, the Su-35 deal faces formidable challenges.

Russia’s aerospace industry remains under severe strain from Western sanctions, particularly shortages of microelectronics, radar modules, and engine components.

KRET’s export list implies that avionics and EW systems are still being manufactured domestically, but delays in powerplant and radar production could push delivery timelines.

Iran, on the other hand, must navigate financing complexities — balancing between oil-for-arms barter agreements and sanctions-proof banking channels via intermediaries in Central Asia and the Caucasus.

However, analysts argue that both nations have strong incentives to ensure timely progress.

For Russia, Iran’s Su-35 order offers crucial financial relief and production continuity for its Sukhoi factories amid declining export opportunities elsewhere.

For Iran, the deal is an existential necessity — a strategic modernization that could secure aerial deterrence against adversaries for the next two decades.

READ: Iran Confirms MiG-29 Arrival as Su-35 and HQ-9 Deliveries “Progress Extensively

REACTIONS, ANALYSIS, AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

The international reaction has been immediate and polarized.

Washington has condemned the growing Moscow-Tehran arms nexus, with senior U.S. officials warning that such deals “pose a direct threat to regional stability.”

Israel’s defence establishment has reportedly conducted multiple simulations assessing potential engagement scenarios between Su-35s and F-35Is in contested airspace.

Meanwhile, Iranian state media has attempted to downplay the leak, framing it as “disinformation aimed at undermining defence sovereignty.”

Russian media, true to pattern, has maintained complete silence — neither confirming nor denying the existence of the KRET export documents.

Nevertheless, within the OSINT and defence analysis community, consensus is forming that the Su-35 deliveries are inevitable, even if phased or delayed.

Experts project initial deliveries could begin as early as late 2025, with full squadron integration by 2028.

If the leaked documents prove accurate, Iran’s air force will soon field one of the most modern and lethal fourth++ generation fighter fleets outside NATO and the Indo-Pacific.

Such a transformation would fundamentally alter air combat calculus across the Middle East, introducing new layers of deterrence and uncertainty into an already volatile region.

A STRATEGIC REALIGNMENT WITH GLOBAL CONSEQUENCES

The KRET leaks have exposed not just a military contract — but the architecture of a new geopolitical reality.

Iran’s acquisition of 48 Su-35s, supported by advanced Russian EW systems, symbolizes the consolidation of an anti-Western military axis bridging Eurasia to the Gulf.

This partnership represents a shared defiance of Western sanctions, the rise of alternative defence ecosystems, and the erosion of U.S. air superiority across multiple theatres.

As one senior analyst noted, “The Su-35 deal marks Iran’s formal entry into the era of fifth-generation warfare capabilities — not by stealth, but by strategy.”

Whether the skies over the Persian Gulf will soon be patrolled by these Russian-built jets remains to be seen.

But one thing is certain: with this deal, the Middle East airpower equation has entered a new and more dangerous chapter, with Tehran no longer playing defence — but dictating terms from above. — DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA