ASEAN Is Better Off with Washington – Analyst

(DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA) — The 57th ASEAN Economic Ministers’ Meeting in Kuala Lumpur reflects the futility of the region’s entrenched dogma of economic and security hedging without the courage to confront reality.

ASEAN’s bold pledge to present a unified front on US tariffs is not only impossible but reckless, given the wide internal divergences, conflicting national interests, and the irrefutable weight of US economic importance to the region.

Despite the rhetoric of balance, each ASEAN member diverges sharply in its foreign policy orientation toward Beijing and Washington, yet almost all have historically depended on the United States for security assurances, defence support, and economic lifelines.

Talks of ASEAN centrality, economic solidarity, and unified pushback against Washington’s tariff measures remain utopian, misplaced, and dangerously naïve.

The region risks being pulled into Beijing’s anti-US economic maneuvering at the expense of long-term security, prosperity, and survival.

The reality is that ASEAN’s dependency on the United States for markets, technology, investment, and security far outweighs any gains from siding with China.

The Myth of ASEAN’s Unified Economic Influence

For decades, ASEAN has been celebrated as a rising economic tiger poised to become a global frontier, yet the bloc remains crippled by internal fragmentation, regulatory inconsistencies, and weak institutional mechanisms.

Although ASEAN collectively stands as the world’s fifth-largest economy, it lacks the structural cohesion, policy harmonisation, and enforcement frameworks necessary to act as an EU-style supranational bloc.

The overoptimistic rhetoric of “decoupling” or “de-risking” from Western influence has proven unrealistic, as ASEAN markets remain firmly tied to advanced economies, especially the United States.

Consensus-based decision-making and the principle of non-interference have constrained ASEAN from projecting genuine economic power or shaping global trade on its own terms.

Distinct political systems — from democracies to authoritarian regimes — and national self-interests prevent any genuine synergy in markets, technologies, or consumer power.

ASEAN’s economic arena remains deeply fragmented, weighed down by non-tariff barriers, inconsistent regulations, and weak political will to integrate.

Without a strong institutional framework to enforce economic agreements or resolve disputes — let alone hard-power crises like Myanmar or Cambodia-Thailand tensions — ASEAN provides little economic or security value to its members.

Thus, member states are compelled to look outward for growth, technology, security, and investment, making any attempt to pivot ASEAN against Washington’s tariffs both futile and counterproductive.

The Unmatched Economic Supremacy of America

The United States remains the world’s unrivalled economic power, with household consumption of US$14.5 trillion in 2022, representing nearly 28% of global consumption.

Its annual import demand of US$3.2 trillion nearly equals the combined GDP of all ASEAN states, underscoring Washington’s unmatched market capacity compared to Beijing’s slowing growth trajectory.

America’s GDP per capita stands at US$76,000, dwarfing China’s US$12,700 and ASEAN’s average of US$5,300, translating into far greater purchasing power and demand sustainability.

The US trade deficit of nearly US$1 trillion highlights its role as the world’s demand engine, fuelling export-driven growth across China and ASEAN.

By contrast, China’s US$280 billion trade surplus in 2023 underscores its reliance on external markets, particularly the US, for sustaining production and growth.

China’s structural weakness lies in its reliance on an investment and export-driven model, with domestic consumption representing just 38% of GDP compared to America’s 68%.

With growth slowing to 5% on average, high debt-to-GDP at 300%, rising unemployment, and demographic decline, China faces the prospect of stagnation long before reaching high-income status.

America, in contrast, will retain a growing workforce by 2050, while China will lose over 100 million working-age citizens and ASEAN’s labour force plateaus.

Demographics, consumption power, innovation, and resilience guarantee that Washington will remain the indispensable engine of global growth, especially for ASEAN’s export-driven economies.

The US, not China, will fuel ASEAN’s transition from middle-income, export-reliant states into high-income, digital, and technology-driven economies.

ASEAN now stands at a critical crossroads: to either cling to outdated hedging between Beijing and Washington or confront reality with strategic clarity.

Blindly aligning with China’s anti-US agenda risks undermining ASEAN’s long-term prosperity, jeopardising crucial security ties, and alienating Washington.

The projection of ASEAN as an alternative economic bloc to resist US tariffs is delusional, fragile, and counter to the region’s best interests.

China’s growth story is no longer one of inevitable strength but one of economic survival, demographic decline, and political fragility.

Only the United States has the proven capacity to sustain peace, uphold the rules-based order, and fuel ASEAN’s future prosperity.

History demonstrates that Washington is indispensable to regional stability, and the decades to come will only reaffirm this truth.

For ASEAN, acknowledging that it is better off with Washington is not just a matter of strategy, but a necessity for survival and relevance in the global order.

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✍️ Collins Chong Yew Keat
Foreign Affairs and Security Analyst
Universiti Malaya