Rafale Downfall? France Presses India for Truth After Alleged Pakistani Shootdowns

(DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA) — For the first time since reports emerged of Rafale losses in the latest Pakistan-India aerial confrontation, France has publicly acknowledged that it is in close contact with New Delhi to determine the fate of the Indian Air Force’s prized multirole fighters.

The French Ministry of Armed Forces, through its spokesperson, confirmed that Paris remains uncertain about the status of India’s Rafales and is actively seeking clarity on claims that multiple aircraft were shot down by Pakistan Air Force (PAF) fighters during the conflict.

“Regarding the conflict taking place between India and Pakistan, what I mainly observe is that we are in the fog of war and that there is an intense information war,” the spokesperson told reporters.

“In other words, what we know most of all today is that we don’t know what happened.”

“There are, of course, a number of allegations that I will not repeat, since there is no confirmed information at this stage,” the official added, underscoring the lack of independently verified data in what is being described as one of the most complex and fast-moving air conflicts in recent years.

The French government is said to be gravely concerned over reports suggesting that India may have lost three Rafale fighter jets—aircraft that form the backbone of its air dominance capability and are central to its power projection across South Asia.

“The issue of the Rafale is, of course, of primary importance to us,” the French spokesperson said, reflecting Dassault Aviation’s and the French defence industry’s deep investment in the platform’s combat reputation.

“We are naturally keen to understand what happened, and so we are trying to stay as close as possible to our Indian partner to better understand the situation.”

“Obviously, the most significant feedback will come from this use in high-intensity combat, which apparently, according to some reports, involved several hundred aircraft. So, of course, we are following these events as closely as possible.”

If confirmed, the loss of even a single Rafale to hostile fire in this conflict would mark the first-ever combat kill of the fourth-plus generation French-built fighter since its operational debut in 2001.

The Pakistan-India air war, triggered by escalating tensions in Kashmir and beyond, reportedly saw Pakistan’s Chinese-built J-10C “Vigorous Dragon” fighters engaging Indian assets with high-lethality PL-15E beyond-visual-range (BVR) air-to-air missiles.

According to regional and Western defence sources, including analysts from the United States and France, PAF J-10C squadrons may have successfully downed multiple Indian aircraft in the opening salvo of the conflict.

In addition to the suspected loss of three Rafales, India is also believed to have lost one Su-30MKI, one MiG-29, and one Mirage 2000, bringing the total to six confirmed or alleged shootdowns, most of which occurred during India’s deep-strike operations against Pakistani territory.

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar claimed responsibility for the downing of all five Indian Air Force (IAF) fighters, including the trio of Rafales, attributing the successful intercepts to PAF’s PL-15E missiles fired from J-10C platforms.

“The much-hyped Rafale has failed miserably, and Indian pilots have proven to be inadequately trained,” Dar said in a statement that sent shockwaves across defence communities in both hemispheres.

Reports also indicate that the sixth aircraft, a Mirage 2000, may have been neutralized by another J-10C using the same radar-guided PL-15E—a missile developed by China to outrange the American AIM-120D and match or surpass Europe’s Meteor.

While India has yet to officially confirm the loss of its Rafales, a senior IAF official, Air Marshal A.K. Bharti, remarked at a wartime briefing, “We are in a war scenario—losses are part of combat,” when pressed about the Rafale incident, hinting at possible unspoken confirmations.

Bharti declined to offer further clarification, but his non-denial has only deepened suspicions among defence analysts and intelligence observers.

To many experts, his statement appears to be an implicit acknowledgment that India may indeed have suffered its worst aerial combat losses since the Kargil conflict.

Adding to the credibility of the claims, CNN’s senior correspondent Jim Sciutto reported on X that a high-ranking French intelligence official had confirmed at least one Indian Rafale had been shot down by Pakistan.

The French official also stated that their intelligence services were actively investigating the possibility that more than one Rafale had been downed in the engagement.

CNN further cited U.S. intelligence assessments indicating that Pakistan had successfully shot down at least one Indian fighter during retaliatory airstrikes by New Delhi, although the U.S. has not disclosed what weapon system was used.

Amid this unfolding air power drama, Dassault Aviation’s stock plummeted nearly 9.5% over five trading days, reflecting investor concerns about the platform’s perceived vulnerability.

In stark contrast, Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group—the developer of the J-10C—saw its shares on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange surge by 61.6% during the same period, buoyed by the fighter’s reported battlefield effectiveness.

Chengdu is also the co-developer of the JF-17 Thunder with Pakistan Aeronautical Complex, a platform that has seen widespread export interest in recent years.

In Southeast Asia, the fallout from the alleged Rafale shootdowns has reached Indonesia, which signed a US$8.1 billion deal in 2022 to procure 42 Rafales as part of its airpower modernization strategy.

A senior Indonesian defence official stated that the events involving India’s Rafales “provided a legitimate and well-founded basis for assessment” of the French platform’s survivability and combat credibility.

The Indonesian official’s shift in tone came after reports of J-10Cs downing Rafales began dominating headlines in Asian defence media, prompting scrutiny within Jakarta’s defence establishment.

Indonesian House of Representatives (DPR) Commission I member Dave Laksono, however, cautioned against drawing hasty conclusions from unverified battlefield reports.

“Unverified claims from conflict zones should not be the sole basis for evaluating the effectiveness or failure of any weapons system,” he said.

“Even the most advanced fighters—such as the F-16, F/A-18, and F-22—have been shot down or crashed under specific tactical conditions. Therefore, Rafale’s performance should not be judged by a single unverified incident.”

Still, Laksono conceded that the Rafale losses—if confirmed—would provide a “constructive and valid” basis for renewed evaluation of the 4.5-generation fighter’s suitability in modern high-threat environments.

India’s original 2016 deal for 36 Rafales from Dassault Aviation was valued at approximately US$8.8 billion, with each unit estimated at US$91 million in its base configuration.

Factoring in advanced weapons packages, custom upgrades, training, and five years of support, the effective cost per unit climbs to about US$218 million, making them among the most expensive fighter jets in the world.

Adjusting for 2025 inflation, the per-unit cost of India’s Rafales now sits at an estimated US$289 million—an astronomical figure for a non-stealth platform operating in contested airspace.

On April 28, 2025, India signed an additional US$7.4 billion deal with France for 26 Rafale Marine fighters, including 22 single-seat and four twin-seat variants, intended for deployment aboard the INS Vikrant aircraft carrier.

This marks the first-ever export of the Rafale’s naval variant, with delivery expected by 2030 and including training, munitions, and long-term support services.

With Rafale’s combat credibility under intense scrutiny and the J-10C emerging as a formidable player in the skies of South Asia, the regional airpower balance may be entering a new, unpredictable chapter.

— DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA