Rafale Down? French Jet’s Combat Reputation Under Fire as Indonesia Reassesses Its Billion-Dollar Deal

(DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA) – Indonesia’s top defence officials are reportedly reviewing the combat credibility of the French-built Rafale fighter following explosive allegations that three Indian Air Force (IAF) Rafales were downed by Pakistan’s J-10C jets during the early stages of the latest India-Pakistan aerial conflict.

While Indonesia’s US$8.1 billion (RM35 billion) procurement of 42 Rafales from Dassault Aviation is seen as one of Southeast Asia’s most ambitious airpower modernisation programmes, Jakarta’s cautious pivot signals growing unease over the platform’s untested combat record in high-intensity conflict zones.

Quoted by news portal, Dave Laksono, a senior member of Commission I of Indonesia’s DPR (House of Representatives), which oversees defence and foreign affairs, acknowledged the developing situation but urged strategic restraint in drawing conclusions.

“Unverified claims in conflict zones cannot be used as the sole basis for assessing the effectiveness or failure of a particular weapons system,” he stated, echoing concerns about the fog of war and information asymmetry that often clouds early reporting.

Laksono further emphasised that even top-tier aircraft are vulnerable under specific combat conditions.

“Even the most advanced jets such as the F-16, F/A-18, and F-22 have experienced incidents of being shot down or crashed due to certain tactical conditions. Therefore, the performance of the Rafale cannot be measured by just one incident that has not even been fully confirmed.”

Despite this caution, the Indonesian defence lawmaker concede that the alleged shootdowns of three Rafales by Pakistan Air Force (PAF) J-10C fighters using PL-15E beyond-visual-range (BVR) missiles provide “legitimate and constructive” grounds for operational reassessment.

These allegations of Rafale shootdown by Pakistan’s J-10C, if substantiated, would mark the first confirmed combat losses of Rafale fighters since the aircraft’s introduction into global air forces—a significant development given the jet’s burgeoning popularity from India and Egypt to the UAE and Croatia.

Back in February 2024, Indonesian Air Force (TNI-AU) Chief of Staff Air Chief Marshal Mohamad Tonny Harjono confirmed that the first batch of six Rafales is scheduled for delivery beginning February 2026.

According to state news agency ANTARA, the initial delivery includes three Rafales between February and March, followed by another three within the next three months—indicating Indonesia’s growing commitment to strengthening its multirole airpower capabilities.

The aircraft will be stationed at two strategically significant airbases—Roesmin Nurjadin in Pekanbaru, Riau, and Supadio Air Base in Pontianak, West Kalimantan—both ideally positioned for Indonesia’s sprawling maritime boundaries and South China Sea contingencies.

The original agreement signed in 2022 covers 42 Rafale fighters—comprising both single and twin-seat variants—with full-spectrum capability for air superiority, precision strike, nuclear deterrence, and reconnaissance, aligning Indonesia’s doctrine of flexible response and strategic deterrence.

The alleged Rafale losses triggered global headlines after Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar declared that five Indian fighters—including three Rafales, a MiG-29, and a Su-30MKI—were neutralised by Pakistan’s J-10C fleet equipped with long-range PL-15E air-to-air missiles.

“The much-hyped Rafales failed miserably, and the Indian pilots clearly lacked the required skill,” said Dar, in a direct challenge to India’s airpower credibility.

In parallel, senior CNN correspondent Jim Sciutto reported that French intelligence sources have confirmed that at least one Indian Rafale was shot down, with investigations underway to verify if additional units were lost.

French authorities are reportedly analysing missile telemetry, radar logs, and open-source visual data to determine whether multiple Rafales were neutralised in the skirmish, marking an unprecedented moment in the jet’s operational history.

Further compounding the controversy, American intelligence assessments—according to CNN—concluded that one Indian jet was indeed downed by Pakistani forces during the Indian Air Force’s cross-border raid, though Washington has yet to confirm the exact system used.

In the immediate aftermath, Dassault Aviation’s stock plummeted 9.48% over a five-day period, reflecting investor anxiety over the potential reputational damage to one of Europe’s premier defence exports.

India, for its part, has neither confirmed nor denied the loss of its Rafales.

When asked at a press conference, Air Marshal A.K. Bharti said, “We are in a war scenario. Losses are expected in combat,”—a statement that analysts view as an implicit admission of battlefield attrition.

For regional observers, Bharti’s guarded comments have fuelled speculation that India may have lost as many as five fighters in the early stages of the campaign.

The Rafale acquisition was originally hailed as a game-changer for the Indian Air Force, with a 2016 deal securing 36 aircraft for an estimated US$8.8 billion.

Factoring in customised upgrades, weapon packages, maintenance, and logistical support, the per-unit cost of India’s Rafales reportedly climbed to US$218 million—reaching US$289 million in adjusted 2025 dollars.

India doubled down on its Rafale commitment by signing a new US$7.4 billion contract in April 2025 for 26 Rafale Marine variants—22 single-seaters and 4 dual-seaters—slated for carrier operations aboard INS Vikrant.

This contract marked the first-ever export of the Rafale Marine and includes advanced maritime weapons, spares, and full-spectrum support, with deliveries set to conclude by 2030.

Still, the latest developments cast a long shadow over Rafale’s reputation as a dominant 4.5-generation fighter, once regarded as a “hot cake” on the global arms market amid heightened tensions in Eastern Europe, East Asia, and the Middle East.

Despite the turbulence, some defence experts continue to back Rafale’s pedigree.

“Rafale is one of the best jet fighters in the world right now… It’s not only about [buying] sophisticated platforms, but you also need the mastery or the know-how to operate those platforms,” said Adhi Priamarizki, a research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

 

Even,Air Vice Marshal (AVM) Aurangzeb Ahmed, the Director General of Public Relations for the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) during his daily briefing backed the French-made fighter aircraft, saying:  “It’s not that Rafale is a bad plane. The Rafale is a equally potent, very potent aircraft… if employed well.”

His remarks implicitly underscored that even the most sophisticated fighter aircraft holds little value on the battlefield if not paired with a highly skilled, well-trained pilot and the effective application of sound tactical doctrine.

As Indonesia prepares to induct the Rafale into its frontline inventory, defence planners in Jakarta now face a more complex calculus—balancing national prestige, capability enhancement, and the unforgiving lessons of modern air warfare.

— DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA