Pakistan Inks USD$1.5 Billion Arms Deal with Sudan, Strengthening a New Military Axis in Africa

(DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA) — Pakistan has sealed a USD$1.5 billion defence contract with Sudan, marking one of the largest arms export deals in its modern history, in a move that underscores Islamabad’s growing influence as a global arms supplier and Sudan’s determination to escalate its military campaign in the midst of a devastating civil war.

The agreement was finalized during the visit of a high-ranking Sudanese military delegation to Islamabad, symbolizing not only a deepening bilateral relationship but also a shift in the balance of power in Africa’s bloodiest conflict.

The arms package is remarkable for both its scale and diversity, comprising aerial, ground, and air defence systems designed to provide the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) with an edge over the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

At the forefront are 10 K-8 Karakorum trainer/light attack aircraft, a product of Pakistan-China defence cooperation, designed to fill dual roles in pilot training and close air support.

The K-8, equipped with hardpoints for air-to-ground munitions and unguided rockets, allows Sudan to field an economical strike aircraft capable of counter-insurgency missions in the harsh environments of Darfur and Khartoum’s outskirts.

Sudan’s airpower boost does not end there. The acquisition of MiG-21 engine upgrades prolongs the life of its Soviet-era fleet, which remains a critical element of the SAF’s order of battle.

Though outdated by modern standards, upgraded MiG-21s can still perform limited air defence and strike roles, particularly when supported by new drone assets.

The UAV component of the deal is particularly striking. Sudan will take delivery of 220 drones of four distinct classes:

• Shahpar-2 UCAVs (Pakistan’s flagship indigenous drone, capable of precision strikes with laser-guided munitions).

• YIHA-III UAVs, a lightweight reconnaissance drone for tactical battlefield surveillance.

• MR-10K UAVs, optimized for electronic reconnaissance and artillery spotting.

• Ababeel-5 drones, which can be adapted for kamikaze missions against enemy infrastructure.

The integration of drones into SAF operations signals a transformation in its doctrine, bringing Sudan into the era of networked drone warfare similar to tactics used in Ukraine, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Yemen.

Ground forces will be strengthened with 150 ASV Mohafiz armored vehicles, offering protection against small arms and IEDs, particularly valuable for urban warfare where RSF units are entrenched.

Perhaps the most strategically consequential element is the transfer of HQ-9 long-range and HQ-6 medium-range air defence systems.

The HQ-9, often compared to Russia’s S-300, can engage aircraft and cruise missiles at ranges up to 200 km, giving Sudan the capability to deny hostile aircraft access to its skies for the first time.

The HQ-6 complements this with point defence against drones, helicopters, and short-range missiles, providing layered protection across critical infrastructure.

Financing the Deal: The Role of External Patrons

The financing of such a massive deal has triggered intense speculation given Sudan’s economic collapse after two years of civil war.

The Sudanese pound has lost more than 90% of its value, and the government is struggling to pay salaries, let alone finance billion-dollar arms packages.

This has led to widespread consensus that a third-party state is underwriting the deal.

Saudi Arabia is seen as the most likely financier, motivated by the need to stabilize the Red Sea corridor, protect maritime trade, and prevent the RSF from becoming dominant under UAE patronage.

The Red Sea is one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, carrying oil exports and commercial traffic between Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.

A destabilized Sudan risks spreading conflict across Eritrea, South Sudan, and even into Egypt, threatening Saudi Arabia’s western flank.

The United States may also be indirectly involved, using Pakistan as a conduit.

Washington cannot legally supply arms to Sudan due to sanctions, but it views the RSF—with its alleged ties to the UAE and links to the Wagner Group—as a destabilizing force.

By allowing Pakistan to act as the supplier, the U.S. can ensure the SAF retains military primacy without violating its own sanctions framework.

China’s fingerprints are also visible in the package, particularly with the inclusion of HQ-series air defence systems.

Beijing may not have financed the deal directly, but Sudan’s role as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) gives it strategic importance.

Allowing Pakistan to act as the exporter creates plausible deniability while still expanding Chinese influence in Africa.

Regional and Geostrategic Context: Sudan as the New Proxy Battlefield

The arms transfer comes at a time when Sudan’s civil war has escalated into a multi-layered proxy conflict.

The SAF, under General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, holds Khartoum and much of northern Sudan, while the RSF under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (“Hemedti”) dominates parts of Darfur and western Sudan.

The war has already displaced over 10 million people, making it one of the worst humanitarian crises since the Rwandan genocide.

Sudan’s location gives the conflict outsized geopolitical importance.

It borders Egypt, Libya, South Sudan, Chad, and Eritrea, and straddles the Red Sea, making it a critical chokepoint for international trade and naval operations.

For Turkey and Pakistan, the deal strengthens their emerging Africa strategy, extending military influence into the Horn of Africa where Gulf powers, China, and the U.S. are already competing.

For Saudi Arabia, Sudan represents a buffer against Iranian influence and a potential RSF-dominated state aligned with rival Gulf actors.

The United Arab Emirates, accused of supporting the RSF with arms and funds, sees Sudan as an arena to expand its regional clout and counter Turkish influence.

This creates a dangerous dynamic where Sudan risks becoming “the next Yemen”, a prolonged proxy war with international actors feeding rival factions.

Pakistan’s Defence Industry and Global Arms Ambitions

For Pakistan, the deal is not just about Sudan—it is about establishing credibility as a major arms exporter.

Pakistan’s defence industry, spearheaded by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC), Heavy Industries Taxila (HIT), and Global Industrial & Defence Solutions (GIDS), has been aggressively marketing its systems abroad.

The JF-17 Thunder fighter jet, co-developed with China, has already found customers in Nigeria, Myanmar, and Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan’s recent $1.6 billion deal for JF-17 Block III aircraft marked Pakistan’s biggest aerospace export.

The inclusion of UAVs in the Sudan package also signals Pakistan’s intent to compete in the global drone market, where Turkey, Iran, and China have rapidly gained ground.

By supplying combat-proven, low-cost platforms, Pakistan is targeting clients who cannot afford Western systems but seek reliable alternatives to Chinese or Russian suppliers.

This strategy mirrors Turkey’s success with the Bayraktar TB2, which reshaped conflicts in Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Ukraine.

Implications for Sudan’s Civil War

The delivery of advanced Pakistani weaponry risks prolonging and intensifying the Sudanese civil war.

The SAF will gain a decisive advantage in the skies with drones and air defence systems, while armored vehicles will enhance urban combat capabilities in Khartoum.

However, the RSF is unlikely to remain static.

The UAE and other backers may step up support, potentially introducing counter-drone systems, advanced MANPADS, and new funding channels.

This could push Sudan into a stalemated, multi-year conflict similar to Syria or Libya, where foreign weapons fuel prolonged warfare without delivering a decisive outcome.

For civilians, the influx of arms almost certainly means greater destruction, displacement, and humanitarian suffering.

Conclusion: A Strategic Gamble with Global Repercussions

The $1.5 billion Pakistan-Sudan arms deal is more than a commercial transaction—it is a strategic gamble with far-reaching consequences.

For Sudan, it offers a chance to tip the balance against the RSF but at the cost of deepening reliance on foreign patrons and prolonging civil strife.

For Pakistan, it cements its role as a rising arms exporter and strengthens its influence in Africa but risks international scrutiny for fueling one of the world’s deadliest wars.

For the region, it transforms Sudan into the latest proxy battlefield, pulling in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, China, the UAE, and possibly the United States into a dangerous contest over the Horn of Africa.

As the first deliveries arrive, the world will be watching not just Sudan’s battlefields but also the evolving global arms race in Africa, where Pakistan has now emerged as a key player.

— DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA