F-35B, Rafale, F-15EX, and Gripen E/F: Shifting the Balance of Air Power in Southeast Asia?

(DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA) – The recent acquisitions of new multi-role combat aircraft (MRCA) by several Southeast Asian nations are expected to intensify pressure on Malaysia to procure its own MRCA fleet to “compete” with neighboring countries.

Over the next three to four years, Southeast Asian airspace will witness a surge in activity with the introduction of new fighter jets such as the JAS39 Gripen E/F (Thailand), Rafale and potentially the F-15EX (Indonesia), as well as the F-35B (VSTOL) by the Republic of Singapore Air Force.

Even the Philippines is expected to make a decision soon regarding its MRCA selection, with current contenders including the JAS39 Gripen, F-16 Block 70, and potentially the KF-21 “Boramae,” developed by Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI).

Myanmar has recently received Russian-made Su-30 fighters, while Vietnam is reportedly in talks with the United States to acquire F-16 jets.

The influx of 4.5 and 5th generation fighter jets into Southeast Asian air forces is likely to exert significant pressure on the Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF), which continues to rely on its fourth-generation fleet, consisting of Su-30MKM and F/A-18D Hornet aircraft.

Currently, the RMAF operates 18 Russian-built Su-30MKM fighters and eight American-made F/A-18D jets.

While Malaysia’s Ministry of Defence signed a RM4 billion contract in May last year to procure 18 FA-50M (FA-50 Block 20) light combat aircraft from South Korea’s KAI, the FA-50M is categorized as a light combat aircraft rather than an MRCA.

Although the FA-50M variant ordered by the RMAF represents the most capable version to date, it remains a light combat aircraft.

Meanwhile, the proposed acquisition of Kuwait Air Force’s F/A-18C/D jets is viewed as a “stop-gap measures” until a new MRCA can be procured.

Malaysia plans to retire its fleet of F/A-18D Legacy Hornets by 2035, while the Su-30MKM fighters are scheduled for decommissioning by 2040 under the RMAF’s CAP55 program.

Despite mid-life upgrade (MLU) initiatives for both the Su-30MKM and F/A-18D fleets, questions persist among observers and the public about whether these aircraft can effectively compete with the newer 4.5 and fifth-generation fighters being acquired by neighboring countries.

As a result, the RMAF is believed to be under mounting pressure to “rebalance” Southeast Asia’s airpower landscape by beginning the process to pick a new fleet of MRCA to replace the aging Su-30MKM and F/A-18D fleets.

The balance of airpower in Southeast Asia—particularly between the RMAF and other regional air forces—is expected to shift, with neighboring countries such as Indonesia and Singapore pulling ahead through the acquisition of Rafale, F-15EX (under negotiation), and F-35B jets.

Failure by the Malaysian government and the RMAF to act swiftly could lead to an even wider “capability gap” as other Southeast Asian nations procure more advanced and capable fighters.

This widening gap could also pose challenges for RMAF operations in the South China Sea, where encounters with 4.5 and fifth-generation fighters from the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) are increasingly likely.

China has already deployed its fifth-generation J-20 “Mighty Dragon” fighters for patrols over the South China Sea.

According to Global Times, China has deployed its J-20 stealth fighter jets to patrol the South China Sea.

The deployment began in early April 2022, with the J-20s conducting routine training patrols over both the East China Sea and the South China Sea.

These patrols are expected to be joined by the newly unveiled J-35A, which made its official debut at Airshow China 2024 in Zhuhai.

J-35A is China’s second fifth generation fighter jet after J-20. — DSA