Portugal Pulls the Plug on F-35 Plans Amid Fears of Trump’s Unpredictability in Europe

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(DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA) – In a move that could reshape its future air combat capabilities, Portugal is reconsidering its decision to procure the fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II fighter jets from the United States, citing growing concerns over Washington’s strategic unpredictability and shifting NATO dynamics.

The decision underscores Lisbon’s apprehensions over American foreign policy, particularly under former President Donald Trump, and the evolving security landscape in Europe.

Speaking to local media outlet Publico, Portugal’s Defence Minister, Nuno Melo, acknowledged the urgent need to replace the country’s ageing fleet of 28 F-16 AM/BM fighters, which are nearing the end of their operational lifespan.

While the F-35 had been identified as the primary replacement, Melo strongly hinted at a pivot toward European-made fighter jets.

“The world is changing, and we cannot ignore the geopolitical realities when making crucial defence decisions,” he stated.

“The recent posture of the United States within the NATO framework compels us to reassess our options carefully, as the reliability of our allies is a critical asset that must be taken into account.”

Melo further elaborated on concerns over potential operational limitations imposed by allied nations.

“Our alliances must not come with strings attached,” he added. “Restrictions on the use, maintenance, and essential components of these aircraft could significantly impact their combat readiness in various operational scenarios.”

While the minister did not disclose which aircraft would replace the ageing F-16 fleet, industry analysts believe Portugal is actively evaluating the Dassault Rafale, the Eurofighter Typhoon, and the Saab Gripen—three of Europe’s leading multirole fighters.

The strategic pivot aligns with a broader European trend of reducing dependence on U.S. defence technology amid concerns over Washington’s ability to exert remote control over advanced military systems.

Lisbon’s deliberations also reflect a growing sense of European self-reliance in defence matters, particularly as France, Germany, and Spain advance the development of the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), which is expected to define Europe’s next-generation air dominance capabilities.

A key concern surrounding the F-35 stems from its reliance on a sophisticated, networked digital infrastructure controlled by the United States.

Several NATO member states have voiced fears that, in the event of a diplomatic rift with Washington, operational access to these jets could be limited or even revoked.

While there is no definitive proof that the U.S. has incorporated a so-called “kill switch” in the F-35’s software, persistent speculation—fueled by Washington’s past actions—has only deepened European anxieties.

For Portugal, which must ensure its future fighter fleet remains fully operational in any conflict scenario, these concerns are not easily dismissed.

The timing of Portugal’s reconsideration adds another layer of complexity.

The country is preparing for early elections following the collapse of its centre-right government, leaving the final decision on the fighter jet procurement uncertain.

Whether the next administration will maintain this shift or revert to the F-35 remains to be seen.

Currently, 14 NATO member states have either ordered or are operating the F-35, reinforcing the jet’s role as the alliance’s premier air combat platform.

However, Portugal’s hesitation signals a potential divide within NATO over future fighter acquisitions.

Beyond Portugal, concerns over U.S. influence on European air power are also playing out in Germany, where Berlin’s planned acquisition of 35 F-35 Lightning II jets is facing renewed scrutiny.

Germany’s €8.3 billion (RM39.7 billion) deal with Lockheed Martin, slated to commence deliveries next year, has become a flashpoint in the broader debate over Europe’s reliance on American military hardware.

Apprehensions over the possibility of U.S.-imposed restrictions have intensified, particularly in light of Washington’s recent decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine—an action widely interpreted as a political maneuver.

Reports suggest that U.S.-supplied F-16s to Ukraine were rendered ineffective not due to direct deactivation, but because Washington withheld critical electronic warfare system updates.

This has heightened fears that similar leverage could be used against Germany’s F-35 fleet in the future.

Recently, the U.S. declined to update the AN/ALQ-131 electronic warfare system installed on Ukraine’s F-16s, a move that significantly reduced their ability to counter Russian air defences.

“If we must be concerned that the United States could do the same to Germany’s F-35s as they have done to Ukraine now, then cancelling the contract may need to be considered,” warned Wolfgang Ischinger, former chairman of the Munich Security Conference, in an interview with Bild.

Germany’s procurement debate, coupled with Portugal’s reconsideration, is fueling calls within Europe for greater self-reliance in military procurement.

“If we are investing billions in advanced fighter jets, we must have full sovereignty over how they are used,” said Ingo Gädechens, a former military officer and German parliamentarian.

As geopolitical fault lines deepen, the F-35 debate is increasingly becoming a litmus test for Europe’s long-term defence strategy.

Will European nations continue to rely on U.S.-made jets despite the risks of external influence, or will they pivot towards homegrown alternatives to ensure strategic autonomy?

For Portugal, Germany, and the broader NATO alliance, the decisions made today could redefine the balance of military power in Europe for decades to come.

— DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA