Dassault Stocks Plunge Amid Rafale Loss Allegations in India-Pakistan Conflict, Chinese J-10C Sees Market Surge

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(DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA) — Shares of French aerospace giant Dassault Aviation, the manufacturer of the Rafale multirole fighter jet operated by the Indian Air Force (IAF), have plummeted by 9.48 percent over the past five days following the outbreak of hostilities between India and Pakistan.

The sharp decline on European stock exchanges is widely attributed to unconfirmed but substantiated reports that three Indian Rafale fighters were shot down by Pakistan Air Force (PAF) J-10C jets — Chinese-made 4.5-generation aircraft — during the initial days of the conflict between Islamabad and New Delhi.

If verified, these would mark the first Rafale combat losses since the jet’s introduction, dealing a severe reputational blow to a platform often touted as one of the most advanced non-stealth fighters in the world.

India has so far refused to officially acknowledge the loss of its Rafale fighters, although Air Marshal A.K. Bharti’s ambiguous remark in a press conference — “losses are part of combat” — when questioned about the missing aircraft, has only intensified speculation.

The Indian Air Force has offered no further clarification, but defence analysts interpret the statement as a tacit admission that India may have lost up to five fighter jets, including three Rafales.

The other two fighters reportedly downed by Pakistan are believed to be a MiG-29 and a Sukhoi Su-30MKI — both stalwarts of India’s combat fleet.

While Dassault Aviation shares slide, its Chinese counterpart — Avic Chengdu Aircraft Co., which manufactures the J-10C — has seen a dramatic reversal in fortunes, with its stock on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange surging by 61.6 percent over the same five-day period.

The spike reflects growing confidence in China’s aviation exports, particularly as the J-10C continues to prove its combat mettle.

Avic Chengdu is also the co-developer of the JF-17 “Thunder” fighter alongside Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC), further reinforcing its strategic partnership with Islamabad.

In contrast to India’s silence, Pakistan has openly claimed responsibility for the destruction of Indian fighters.

Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar asserted that PAF’s J-10Cs were responsible for downing all five IAF jets — including three French-built Rafales — using PL-15E beyond-visual-range (BVR) air-to-air missiles.

“The much-hyped Rafale has failed miserably, and Indian pilots have demonstrated their lack of proficiency,” Dar stated bluntly.

The reported loss of Rafale fighters in actual combat has dented the jet’s previously unblemished combat image, which has helped drive sales across Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the Mediterranean — where it has been dubbed a “hot cake” among air forces seeking a proven 4.5-gen multirole platform.

Whether Pakistan’s claims, if substantiated, will impact Dassault’s global sales and marketing efforts remains to be seen.

India originally signed a US$8.8 billion deal with Dassault Aviation in 2016 to acquire 36 Rafale fighters — approximately US$91 million per unit — with upgrades, weapons packages, spare parts, and five years of support pushing the real unit cost to US$218 million.

When adjusted for inflation by 2025, the price per aircraft climbs further to an estimated US$289 million (RM1.27 billion), making it one of the most expensive 4.5-generation fighters in service globally.

Currently, India deploys its Rafale fleet at two key airbases.

Ambala Air Force Station, located in Haryana roughly 220 km from the Pakistan border, hosts No. 17 Squadron “Golden Arrows” and serves as the first operational home for the Rafale in India.

Hasimara Air Base, in West Bengal near the China-Bhutan-India tri-junction, is home to No. 101 Squadron “Falcons.”

Its location allows rapid response to threats from the northeastern front and the strategic Siliguri Corridor.

Each squadron operates 18 Rafales, bringing the total fleet to 36 aircraft actively deployed.

In a separate development, India has also recently signed a US$7.4 billion agreement with France to acquire 26 Rafale Marine (Rafale M) fighters specifically for carrier operations by the Indian Navy.

The deal, inked on 28 April 2025, includes 22 single-seat carrier-capable variants and four twin-seat versions not intended for aircraft carrier deployment, aimed at replacing India’s aging MiG-29K fleet.

The Indian Air Force (IAF) also operates approximately 46 Mirage 2000 fighter jets developed by Dassault Aviatiion.

 This fleet comprises 36 single-seat Mirage 2000H variants and 10 twin-seat Mirage 2000TH trainers.

Meanwhile, Pakistan inducted its first batch of Chinese-built J-10Cs on 4 March 2022.

Six aircraft were initially delivered to Minhas Air Base in Kamra, Attock District, Punjab, and formally inducted into the PAF on 11 March 2022, forming the core of No. 15 Squadron “Cobras.”

The J-10C acquisition was a direct response to India’s Rafale procurement, bolstering Pakistan’s air defence posture with a modern multirole platform featuring AESA radar, advanced electronic warfare systems, and the long-range PL-15 air-to-air missile.

Pakistan initially announced plans to procure 25 J-10Cs in December 2021, with the first deliveries timed just ahead of Pakistan Day on 23 March 2022.

Since then, Pakistan has reportedly taken delivery of at least 20 J-10Cs and is in advanced talks to expand the fleet to as many as 60 units — a major boost to its national air defence strategy.

J-10Cs remain stationed at Minhas Air Base, which also hosts Pakistan’s premier aviation industrial hub, the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC).

The deployment marks a generational shift in Pakistan’s air combat capability, with the J-10C gradually supplanting legacy Mirage III/V fighters.

Armed with the PL-15E missile — believed to have an engagement range exceeding 200 km — and supported by advanced radar and datalink networks, the J-10C positions Pakistan for air dominance in an increasingly contested South Asian battlespace.

Besides the J-10C, the Pakistan Air Force also operate JF-17 Thunder, also known as the FC-1 Xiaolong in China, a combat aircraft jointly developed by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC).

The aircraft officially entered service with the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) in 2007, and as of 2025, over 145 units across Block I, II, and III variants have been inducted into multiple frontline squadrons.

The Block I and II variants serve primarily as versatile multirole fighters capable of performing air-to-air and air-to-ground missions, while the more recent Block III version introduces a significant leap in capability with AESA radar (KLJ-7A), integrated electronic warfare systems, a wide-angle holographic HUD, and a fully glass cockpit.

Block III also supports the deployment of long-range beyond-visual-range (BVR) missiles such as the Chinese PL-15, giving the PAF a credible air superiority capability to rival India’s Meteor-equipped Rafales.

— DEFENCE SECURITY ASIA